Weaker Private Debt Borrowers to See More Hurt, Morningstar Says

  • Morningstar sees more divergence between healthy, weaker firms
  • Defaults, downgrades to increase next year, but more gradually

Lower-rated private credit borrowers are expected to “remain stuck in the mud” next year, as they stare down declining sales, weakened margins and high borrowing costs, according to a Morningstar report.

Defaults and downgrades are expected to increase in 2025, albeit at a more gradual pace compared to this year, Morningstar said in its Thursday report. In 2024, about 1.4% of the more than 400 middle-market borrowers in Europe and North America rated by Morningstar saw downgrades, outpacing upgrades by about 2.5 times.