Strange Economics of Mideast Oil Shield Trump From Iran’s Bite

Heightened tension in the Gulf hasn’t caused crude prices to spike dramatically. Here’s why the numbers are stacked against Iranian disruption.

A satellite image of a burning tanker in the Gulf of Oman on June 13.

Photo: Getty Images

A third of the world’s seaborne crude and fuels pass through the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. So it’s no surprise that as skirmishing in the Gulf between the U.S. and Iran has intensified this year, the price of oil has … wait … fallen?

Anyone betting that troubles in the area would push up the price of oil has lost a barrel of money. The prices of Brent crude and the U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), are each down about 26% from their highs of last October, which was before hostilities ratcheted up.