The Case for and Against China

When two respected organizations—plus a famous Harvard economist—tackle the question of China’s growth, they come up with widely different answers.

In The Long Soft Fall in Chinese Growth, published on Oct. 20 by the Conference Board, China managing director David Hoffman and economist Andrew Polk write that the economy will stagnate as policymakers drag their feet on needed changes. The business group predicts annual growth in China’s gross domestic product will fall to 4 percent by 2020. The New York-based Asia Society Policy Institute expects China to expand 6 percent that year—not as robust as in the past, but still pretty fast. In its study, Avoiding the Blind Alley, released on Oct. 22, the Society cites progress in China’s reforms. Both reports appeared the week China announced third-quarter GDP grew 7.3 percent, the slowest rate in five years.