Indonesia's Election Has Investors on Edge

Indonesia’s presidential vote on July 9 was supposed to play out like India’s recent national elections. Just as Indians fed up with their country’s ruling class delivered a landslide victory to Narendra Modi, a probusiness governor whose father manned a tea stall at a train station, Indonesians would embrace Joko Widodo , who as governor of Jakarta has built a reputation as a humble man in touch with the masses. That, at least, was the outcome presaged by opinion polls, which at one point had Widodo, who’s better known by his nickname Jokowi, with a 40-point lead over the Establishment candidate, Prabowo Subianto, a former general who was once married to the daughter of Suharto, the strongman who ruled Indonesia for more than three decades.

It may be time to rewrite the script. With just days to go before the vote, Jokowi’s big lead has evaporated, and the race between him and Prabowo is too close to call. The latter has benefited from his association with Aburizal Bakrie, the chairman of Suharto’s Golkar Party and patriarch of the family-controlled group that owns one of the country’s largest television networks. Also in Prabowo’s corner is Hary Tanoesoedibjo, the chief executive officer of Media Nusantara Citra. The two companies together command 34 percent of the country’s TV viewership, according to Deutsche Bank. Plus, Prabowo has the endorsement of pop singer Rhoma Irama, known as Indonesia’s Elvis.